friday range, page-34

OK took a closer look and it was less than a year. Still I've never heard of a 50% crash in one day - as far as I can tell this is the fastest Dow crash since 1937 perhaps - so its fast (1987 the biggest one day move I know of but only 22%). Almost all crashes of this magnitude are followed by a significant rally - then they go their separate ways - sometimes another round of falls, some rally for years. I guess that's where policy is making the difference - or not. I don't think its pre-ordained. Interesting that we are yet to have that significant (multi-month) rally though - it makes this one an exception.

Japan is a shocker of an economy but in some ways I think this is also a reflection of its population, who are aging in isolation in a quiet corner of the world. They live off their exports and perhaps feel no real need to increase their material consumption as individuals. The US is a far more dynamic economy - its prone to excesses and bubbles, but far more capable of bouncing back due to a more youthful population and open society.