A small excerpt from the following much longer article
https://www.wsj.com/articles/get-ready-for-the-full-employment-recession-bc9937a5?mod=hp_lead_pos6[[[[[[[ You would think from May’s blowout jobs report the economy was booming.
Here’s the puzzle: Other recent data suggest it is in recession.The dichotomy emerges from the divergent behaviour of employment and output, two key indicators of economic activity. In May, employers added 339,000 jobs, bringing the total number of jobs added this year to nearly 1.6 million, a gain of 2.5% annualised. But real gross domestic income, a measure of total economic activity, shrank in both the fourth quarter and the first quarter.
Two negative quarters of output growth are one indicator of a recession.The economy has gone through periods where output has expanded faster than employment, but seldom the other way around, said Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. What explains these dissonant signals is productivity, or output per hour worked: It is cratering.
That raises questions about whether the much-hyped technology adoption during the pandemic and, more recently, artificial intelligence are making a difference. It also raises the risk that the Federal Reserve will have to raise interest rates more to tame inflation.
Labor productivity fell 2.1% in the first quarter from the fourth at an annual rate, and was down 0.8% in the first quarter from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday. That is the fifth-straight quarter of negative year-over-year productivity growth—the longest such run since records began in 1948. ]]]]]]]
Rather than associating this productivity loss just to technology adoption and AI (refer 2nd last paragraph in the above excerpt) I would be looking at things more fundamental … eg continued high levels of work from home post covid, the social media driven movement to work life balance and emerging feelings of personal righteousness v community and national spirit. A post industrial malaise? Mature western economy hubris? Unchecked, could we be peering over the precipice of decline? Allowing the rise and rise of those more industrious?
A frustrating sail race yesterday … leading early but ran out of wind … timed out … on the bright side our stash of post race drinks, were brought out early as we drifted lol … a peaceful, relaxing few hours leaning mainsail tweaking in light flukey winds from almost any direction on the compass.
Dex
