JlkTS?My brain is probably not in gear but not sure what you are...

Jlk

TS?

My brain is probably not in gear but not sure what you are referring to.

My US cycles are proving to be problematic.

Here we did have a major potential top for May which was the same top that brought in the '87 top.

The left me with the unusual position of expecting a May important low in the US and a top here.

One thing that worried me was that 2008 was 8 years into the 17 year consolidation period from 2000, just as 1974 was 8 years into the 17 year consolidation period from 1966. The May top was also the same time after the 2007 top as the 1930 top was after 1929. And we are also near a 30/40/60 year cycle top.

The cycles were a little different in 1974.

The presidential cycle was conducive to a fall then.

The decennial was positive.

Armstrong's cycle gave an inversion but was obvious as it turned on the exact date and never looked back.

So 1974 was a shocker bear but 2 out of 3 of the cycles were suggestion that, and 2 out of 3 is a majority and rules.

Armstong's cycle bottomed at Easter this year and the markets rallied so it doesn't appear an inversion. The other 2 cycles are now pointing up and so from late May/early June I expected a positive attitude in the US market.

The problem was that the 17 year consolidation phase suggested no new highs so that doesn't leave much room to rise and so I guess that suggested choppy sideways action.

It is becoming a worrying development and it could be that the 1974 pattern and the 40 year cycle top is overriding what has always been reliable action. And maybe things are just delayed a little by some longer minor cycle.

I thought a 1974 type market wouldn't develop here till around 2012/13, but the market doesn't always listen to me.