Thought I'd do some additional analysis to (hopefully) confirm...

Thought I'd do some additional analysis to (hopefully) confirm my new bullish outlook (for now).

Firstly, a look at the NASDAQ chart (this often leads the other markets).
- On the daily we have 3 positive bars on the MACD convergence/divergence and the MACD now has a steep gradient strongly suggesting a breakup here
- However on the price chart the NASDAQ has completed its latest approx 130pt extension for now and is up against the channel edge so I'd would expect a 50% pullback from here down along the channel edge Mon night and possibly even Tues, Wed? to about 1520ish then the likely push through the channel maybe Wed, Thurs
- Weekly MACD shows very strong rejection of turn down so also looks very positive
- Conclusion: breakout up likely (though not certain) this week but probably after pullback Mon, Tues, maybe Wed.



Secondly, I thought I'd do some additional analysis of fibs for a few key indices' weekly charts (as per the one I did for XJO on Fri night), by comparing fib levels based on the lower bollinger band vs either their bases or closing lows.

The XJO suggested to me we have indeed bottomed for now. My analysis below for Nikkei, Nasdaq, FTSE and SP500 is inconclusive for the Nikkei but again strongly suggests we have had the lows for now for the other 3 indices and should rally from here.

What is a little odd is that ordinarily I would expect the fibs to match best using the closing highs and closing lows. However, in the case of the Nikkei, NASDAQ and SP500 (and incidentally, XJO) its clear the fib levels would not align on this basis, so I've used their bases instead.

Still, unless we have some massively lower lows coming, then this should be fine as the alternatives using the lower bb look unsuitable.

Conclusion: No lower lows until we complete some sort of rally. Note this means IMO either 1. we have a decent rally from here or 2. we do a very sharp drop to retest the short term existing price bases and/or closing lows - but there should be no closing lows below those already in place - then we bounce fast and rally.