OK - As we've now finished the week I've done some further...

OK - As we've now finished the week I've done some further analysis on the XJO weekly chart but looking only at the period over the last 2 years.

In particular, I've focused on 1. channels and 2. fib levels based on the 3470ish base versus the expected target if we fall from 3470. I used 3470 in error - I should have used the closing low of about 3320. Nevertheless 150pts makes minimal difference to where the fibs sit.

The results were in fact contrary to my expectations.

I posted a few days ago a weekly chart from 2003 and a monthly chart from 1982, ignoring MAs, bollinger bands, MACDs etc but instead focusing on channels, support levels, fibs and taking into account the blowoff top in late 2007.

Now from that analysis I've been pretty convinced a final fall to 2800 has been coming.

However, the attached chart - in particular fib levels of the 2 scenarios - suggests very strongly that we do indeed break up from here.

I'm really not sure how to reconcile this with my longer term weekly and monthly charts though (sound of scratching head).

The only thing I can think of is we eventually get down to 2800 but only after we have a big rally in the meantime. Given the longer term of these charts thats possible I suppose and they may still make sense.

So - it does appear we are about to rally from here. Looks like I'm out of my cave and into a paddock! Mooo!