friday trading, page-27

Some thoughts on the S&P:

- Last night saw a 3/8th / 38.2% retracement of the most recent up move from last Monday's low, but it also broke the prior swing low by a few points.

- 3/8th was 1015.54

- 38.2% was 1015.12

- Last night's low 1016.2

- That should have been the dumping of the last of the stock at this level and if we don't move up from here now then I believe that there is a problem with the uptrend.

- Also, last night looked to me like a failed attempt to confirm the bearish picture that had started to show up on the intraday with lower lows and lower highs so, as that move to the downside failed, the result should be a fast move is the opposite direction...up. It seems to have started but if that is what is happening there now, it should now continue up unimpeded.

So the way I'm seeing it is that if we don't make some sound progress tonight (or Monday at the very latest) there's probably some structural damage to the fast uptrend at this juncture.

I hope that makes sense. I'm a bit tired and haven't had a chance to read today's posts so forgive me if I'm repeating what others have said already.