friday wannabes, page-9

While everyone is trying to guess a "breakout" move, if it is going to happen, I thought this chart might be helpful. It shows a text book example of convergence (or negative divergence for the purists). It also shows the market has quietened down in the short term but is getting volatile again. It has been over bought and has turned in the downward direction. This doesn't necessarily mean a big downward movement but it does show any strong upward movements at this point will probably be unsustainable in the short term. If you look at the at the recent plunges they have quite steep RSI's and we don't currently have that although the potential certainly exists.

Also of note with Volt's theory on a big downward move, a small upward move occurred just previous to the plunges of past crashs. This effectively burnt the shorters out of the market, reducing the money in the market to help buffer a fall. Since I posted the XJO options open interest showing a large proportion of shorts, I don't think we will get our plunge just yet (if at all), but that doesn't mean volt is wrong, options weren't a listed item in the earlier 1900's. If I had to make a call it would be a gradual down in the short to medium term with short profit taking on the way and perhaps a test of recent lows.

I am of course ignoring all the news and in my opinion the way to rapid recovery from recent lows.