At the risk of turning this thread into a Selmax Tolerance discussion...
"3rd. I don't bragg, just trying to open people's mind up to have a open mind! Market is like a rubber band, when it goes one way too hard, it will slap. As I stated, to do intraday short at 4450 was simply too much to risk and too little to gain, unless you hold the shorts overnight, and if that's the case,that is same as gambling, taking a punt. and then it turned out, the big boys did a short burn and ran her up another 20 pts. Burn the shorts and then sold her back down. The point was, if I was going to go short xyz, i would never short at $15, even number, but $15.10 maybe."
Firstly, I believe if anyone is trading for a living or to supplement their income, like most of us here are doing, our minds are collectively very open. You have guys talking astrology, charts, fundamentals, numerolgy, tea leaves and the way the wind blows and every bit helps (assuming they all work).
Secondly, one cannot assume everyone does a trade for one universal reason. Shorting at 4450 for the afternoon close could be part of a bigger plan, for instance in my case, I shorted 1/3 of the position I wanted to be short realising full well that the SPX could try to break 1095 a few more times, and has an outside sell cap at 1105. I would equate that to probably 4500 on the XJO, and I don't know what the charts would say but I'm going to wait till later tonight and possibly short another 1/3 nearer to 4500. However, if it had panned out like I hoped it will (fade in the afternoon) I would have been happy to take 50 points and move my shorts to SPX and Europe instead.
Thirdly, it is incorrect to assume that every trade that doesn't fit with your profile is a punt. People have different tolerance levels and different bank account sizes. What is a punt to one may not be to another based on trading styles and psychological make up. For instance, I view a broad basket of financials leading up to bank stress test results a punt, whereas Selmax is long some regionals for the very opposite reason (NOT a punt). However, I choose NOT to sell my 20T Barclays I bought at 1.60 all those months ago, because I always wanted to be a shareholder and for THAT position, I don't view it as a punt, but more a matter of fact that Barclays is cheap at 1.60, and if it got there again, I'd buy more. I intend to pass Barclays shares to my kids, I'm a closet Anglophile.
Fourthly, I am still connected to the industry and speak to alot of buyside people. And if I can't find out whether the big boys are playing games (on the 23rd of July?) I doubt very much you can. Not to disrespect your analysis and you may be right, but to say it with all certainty seems a bit too arrogant and premature. More importantly, Selmax, you have held yourself out to be a knowledgeable person, and you must understand that sometimes people who are more novice in their trading experience may look at you and take what you say at face value, thus making them do things which may cause them to lose money. I'm never one to believe in this "big boy" conspiracy theory, and having been involved in the buy side in days gone by, I can assure you it takes alot of effort to attempt to engineer a momentum push, and usually it has to do with a tail wagging to dog (those that worked before in the industry will know what I mean by that statement).
Fifthly, I have seen coordinated short burns before. The classic one was Volkswagon. But to engineer a short burn on an index for 30 points is a complete waste of time and money. In 2004 I think from memory, a Dutch firm engineered an artificial ramp up in the index for June 30th close, and the index rallied 80-100 points in the last 10 minutes. Now THAT's a burn. 30 points is just short covering from retailers and prop traders who did not want to have a position overnight, or guys who are making last minute bets on the markets.
And lastly, you are 100% right on round numbers. And they work very well, because all the strikes on the derivatives, index options and futures are in round numbers. No other reason.
All in good fun Selmax. Keep the barbs coming I don't mind...I have the thick skin to suck up a bit of pain while the world gets into a point of self destruction. I hope you don't get caught in it though. May not happen of course, in which case I'll lose some money but won't be the end of the world.
(20min delay)