Seagull my friend, I completely concur with your analysis. Has...

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P$Ychic

518 Posts.

18/07/15

15:09

Post #: 15655843
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Originally posted by seagull ↑

I agree it is in a continuation move but to the up side.

I really can’t see it getting back to $0.06 though one never knows I guess.
The bottom of this down trend and support is pretty clear now at $0.105 and a new up trend is developing.

My reasoning for this?
The gap was closed on the 7th July. The volume that day was 2 & 1/2 times the 34 day average volume.
Why is the 34 day volume significant? see the chart with the volume spikes, every time there is a spike of that size there is a significant close by.
The following three down days formed a classic candle reversal pattern with less than half the volume traded than the volume on the 7th.
This was followed on the 13th with higher volume and a confirming candle followed by a very low volume down day followed again on the 15th by a big candle on higher volume.
The selling volume on thursday & friday smells of T+3 traders refreshing their trades and shows the breakout pattern reforming again.
All in all a very promising looking chart with the volume favoring a rise in the sp.

The gravestone doji on Thursday was I believe a consolidation day probably by the same traders just refreshing their trades, closing them & getting back in.
Fridays selling was pretty much the same as the day before the down trend was broken.
It all looks like a fairly orderly process by the pros getting in without making too much noise about it.

The downtrend on the daily & weekly charts would appear to have been reversed.
Daily support is now at $0.14 which is also the center of box 6. If the box theory is to work then the sp will eventually rise to the top at $0.165.

The weekly chart needs another up week with a close above $0.14 before I would be entirely confident that this is not another false start but feel confident this time that it has been broken.

The rising trend line angle on the daily is only about 45%, just about perfect I reckon.

What I would be looking to see next week would be any down days to be contained inside Wed big candle which would confirm the continuation pattern for a further step up. The pattern could continue to form for a few days to a week or two before breaking out again..
The number of down days is not really that critical provided the sp stays inside the $0.13 - $0.15 range.

This pattern occurred 3 times last year from 31 July to 14 Aug then again from the 15th to 22 Aug and again from 27 Aug to 3 Sept.

If there is a glitch with what I think is happening then we might see the sp drop to the rising thick blue trend line shown. This would not be that bad as a bounce there would be the third higher low in this trend since the low.
A worst case scenario would be to see the sp down on the lower broken Red one around $0.11.

This rally from the lows was not at all like the last one in box 5 which ultimately failed and looks very similar so far to 20th July and onward last year as others have noted.

A lack of news will probably be the catalyst for any retracements below $0.13 but I firmly believe that we have seen the bottom & the reversal of the trend. I don’t believe that we will see sub $0.105 again.

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Seagull my friend, I completely concur with your analysis. Has anyone ever told you, you are very, very good at this..

Thank YOU!

HD

PSY Price at posting: 14.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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