So, JPR is now 5-from-5, with wells J50, 51, 52, 53 & J55 all...

So, JPR is now 5-from-5, with wells J50, 51, 52, 53 & J55 all striking oil. The J55 well (on the new target in the Block 31 extension) again indicates excellent depths of net pay (c60m), similar to the previous wells on the Akkar East accumulation. The open hole logs indicate good levels of oil saturation and porosity. As regards probable implications for overall reserves, JPR’s last CPR gave a figure of 24mmbo of 2Ps (under the PRMS classification), but this was after drilling only the J50 & J52 wells. The J51 well confirmed the infill between J50 & J52, whilst J53 extended the Akkar East field significantly to the south. Currently, the State Reserves Committee has endorsed a recoverable reserves figure for JPR of c37mmbo (under the Russian GOST classification, which is apparently ‘similar’ to PRMS).

Given that JPR has started production in earnest only fairly recently and that depletion of reserves thus far is likely to be pretty insignificant, and adding now the new find at J55, it seems reasonable to suppose that if there were a new CPR right now, a 2P figure somewhere above 40mmbo would be realistic. However, the new CPR will not be issued until early 2013, after the next (fully funded) exploration well (J58) is drilled on the B31 extension targeting another new target (though possibly actually an extension of the new field discovered by J55), of likely similar size to that discovered by J55 (ie c10mmbo recoverable). With JPR’s record of drilling success, it’s not too much of a stretch to anticipate further success with J58, and thus possibly a CPR early in the New Year giving perhaps in excess of 50mmbo of 2Ps (or very likely well above 40mmbo). Any figure of that sort would surely raise JPR’s profile and valuation significantly. Interesting times for holders.