while at caldaro's website, i checked out some of his links. i...

while at caldaro's website, i checked out some of his links. i found this one interesting and well worth a read - the sextant weekly report from abn-amro.

below is a snippet. more of the article at this link:


http://www.growyourwealth.com.au/the-sextant-report/2009/5/19/the-sextant-report-19-5-09.html


SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK

I continue to favour new lows for our market within the next few months, in stark contrast to the overwhelming majority. Indeed, I can count on one hand how many other market participants are as bearish as me. The common thread is that we are all Elliot Wave technicians and fierce opponents of fractional reserve banking – the government’s own ponzi scheme.

I have highlighted many times in these pages how the consensus view can be hazardous to your wealth. Whenever an idea makes the transition from thesis to gospel wisdom, the greatest risk is in the opposite direction. To be sure, the prevailing trend may continue indefinitely in the short-term as each pullback is bought with fervour. However, with each postponement, the greater the inevitable reversal.

All the ducks have lined up except price on the bearish side. With respect to price itself, the action looks encouraging for the bears, with an excellent rate of descent combined with minimal overlapping. This suggests we will witness a deep pullback at a very minimum, if not new lows in the foreseeable future.

My medium-term count for the XJO remains the same. Before a significant bear market rally can take place, we require at least one more new low to complete wave 5 down of A down. And as far as I am concerned, this wave has already kicked off with 2700 in its sights. Rallies should be sold.