friday's stage set, page-125

Some thoughts for JK5 regards the notion that this may be a repeat of march 2003. From a cycle perspective......

for simplicity leaving out volts 62 month and prez cycles and just considering armstrong and the 10 year cycle. firstly, and this may be over simplifying the idea of 10 year cycles, but consider how many major lows there have been in "2" years....IE 1902, 1932, 1942, 1962, 1982 and 2002. and also think of how many major tops we have had in "6" or "7"years....ie 1906, 1917, 1937, 1946, 1966, 1987, 2007.

trying to perfectly line up an 8.6 year armstrong cycle with a 10 year cycle is a little hard to do (happens once every 860 years)......but the comparison between now and the 30s is close enough

there was an armstrong top late 1929 and right shoulder (minor) top late 2000. on both occasions the market drops severely into the 2 year (1932 and 2002). in 1932 market bounces from 41 points to 100ish points and then moves sideways until the armstrong bottom in 1934. In 2002 the market did bottom with the armstrong cycle. On both occasions the market then has a bull move into the "7" year (1937 and 2007). then on both occasions the market has a major bear correction.

If in fact we are to some extent follow the 1930s pattern then we can look to the period marked in the oval as to what lies ahead. that is to say the worst may now be over for now but the years ahead are less than inspiring into the next "2" year (2012). In 1942 the armstrong cycle bottomed and there was a really decent bull run into the armstrong top in 1946....it was, however, not until 1949 that a new long term bull was born that ran to the late 1960s......on this occasion armstrong shall bottom in June of 2011 just ahead of the "2" year. Maybe then you will see a decent bull period.