This is not having a dig, but it's probably going to be hard not to see it that - a few comments from this thread. The interest rates issue is a bit misunderstood IMO.
>>It's a dissapointing stastistic that many participants in this industry fail to achieve there desired outcomes.
I think it's a universal constant and deserves it's place as a high risk market. If it was easy, there'd be no margin in it for us with everyone doing it and spreads would probably be a fraction of a cent across the board. Even then it would still be hard, probably harder.
Look at interest rate deposits I guess if this is not appealing. More than half my time is reading out the noise including baseless ramps, misdirections, and misrepresentation (wait! by the media pundits and commentators). At least in here you get (mosty) intelligent discussion with many subjective technical and fundamental bases. Certainly different points of view.
>>Yep - it is pretty obvious there are few real experienced traders around nowdays on this post .. if you are not a techie - well then -don't post !!
Hmmm, while I'd love to comment, might have to leave this one alone. I appreciate the contents of all the posts, and their different points of view.
>>(2) Well - if the USD goes down - for the short term it will hurt the Aussie mkt. But I am not sure, b/c many of our cpy's have overseas op's ... our country sux nowdays b/c it is super difficult FOREX wise !!! JPN ! Well easy right !! In the end - it is a cliche but - WILL CHINA CON'T GROWTH - my bet - they will be hammmered - but I have it wrong up until now so my opinion has little effect ! BUT I am hanging on to my shorts like a Wobbegong - my favourite now FMG - why - if the mkt's pump well I am stuffed - but the way I see it - they are soooo soooo full of borrowed $$$ it scares me ! Like soooo much of the wholoe world !!!!
(not sure if this fits in with the previous remark above)
I think people have got the whole interest rate thing a bit messed up. Anyone who owns assets on loan actually refinances with lower interest rates (like they are now). They are STILL near the lowest levels for many years, and much less than 8 percent in 2008.
The base interest rate is only one part of the issue. The problem is for those equities fixed to the previous high interest period - otherwise I'd expect they would be falling over themselves in a rush to refinance. If they 'are not', it's because they 'cannot' which is the luverly banks constraining credit for their own selfish balance sheets. Nothing whatsoever to do with the RBA IMO. The RBA are (thankfully) looking after the bigger picture much to everyones dismay and doing a far better job at it than the US. So much so, that our housing market has not yet stuffed itself full of higher prices, and other economic indicators are the reason why the dollar is powerful.
But, couple lasts years fixed high interest rate loans with this years low production and next years forecast low revenues (maybe) and you have the makings of a collapse that has nothing to do with notching base interest rates up 1/4pct base rate. If these companies could refinance, and the banks support this, maybe it's a win-win.
As for being debt riddled, you don't think the BANKS would fall over themselves in a rush to secure loans with interest rates UP? They would be compelled to constrain liquidity with low-low interest rates because ... wait for it ... there's no margin in it for them. Go figure!
Have a think about where the real problems are started. The savvy companies are still the ones who can manage both debt and revenues in the same breath without breaking a sweat.
If you didn't refinance your loans this year (2009) and stick it back to your bank for a change, then you might have missed an opportunity.
Same goes for every other loan held on the planet. The debt problems started last year, and certainly before this year. But don't look at the RBA for your problems locally - they are doing what the US FED wishes it could do.
(20min delay)