Tony, are you sure that list of retail shops is not from the states? I don't think we have a saturation of those types of businesses here as much as over there. With a couple of exceptions mind you, restaurants and maybe Gyms.
You say "All this bad news is already factored into the market" as many others also keep saying. I wouldn't be so sure about that. I think the market has certainly factored in some terrible news and indeed some terrible news that is yet to come however I am becoming more and more certain that there is still plenty of down side to come.
You say " We are headed for a very severe recession", well don't forget we are only back at 2004 levels on the XJO right now. So I ask you, when was the last time we had a severe recession as bad as the one ahead? Your answer would probably be (along with most) a long time ago, maybe 1990? (although I wouldn't call that severe), so then if this is the case then why are we only at XJO levels of 2004? Doesn't this tell us we have much further to drop?
As much as I think that Aus will do it better than the rest I just feel that all the major data ie unemployment rate, GDP etc is lagging badly due to the sudden decline of the market, oil, interest rates etc. I am of the theory that because it has been such a dramatic drop (markets) all the data will take some time to cough up into the real economy. I just hope the market does not become complacent as I can see it happening. Just as we think we are out of the woods we will be struck with lagging data results down the track imo.
If emerging markets don't get back to where they were then we will definitely feel the pinch. Aus has become very dependent on these countries and it was fuelling little Johnnies surplus imo.
Kevi, I'm doing the same. What type of business are you starting? Surprising considering your success on the market? You seem to know what you are doing and from my observations you have been on the end of a few winners recently. FLX was a beauty! What about MMG you gone of that?
