From a Legal Derisk POV, Take Over price, page-3

Edited from linked version.

Intelligentinvestor.com records AVZ share price daily and intra-daily.

Shareholders would do well to consider what a Silk / lawyer would be estimating for $AVZ directors, that is? Hypothetically, How to nullify a class action etcetera.

I don’t believe for a moment the threats to management that if SP is not above ATH there would be a CA.

This is because $AVZ lawyers on May 4 manage to declare there is a conflict (Dathomir & Cominiere transfer claims) but also managed to say it’s spurious, hence why MOST of you here are still holding and also because you listened to team leaders here as well, which BTW is poisonous for your legal sense of entitlement. Because if AVZ can show you were not misled —because you said you relied like many on Mr Joe Blogs here or X or YT, you’re in trouble. So that’s why I don’t believe AVZ will face a successful class action because they told you bad news that was sufficient to make a decision to sell hold or buy.

So what would a Silk commissioned by AVZ lawyers advise? It’s beyond my remit to advise, but in my opinion, it would be about how to reduce legal risk to the precious ones in the AVZ office and that means what was the closing share price on May 4 2022? First AVZ lawyers tweaked artfully confession and denial so that you could make a decision, and the price landed at

78cps by close. AVZ may well have set expectations to a maximum of 78cps, because any claim asking more has no merit because May 4 2022 is the dotted line defining AVZ’s escape from no longer Not disclosing because it believed there was sufficient materiality to “media speculation” to make a statement, which bled the fact of a conflict implicitly with powerful partners.

as you can see the share price was floating above 1 dollar for many days, but come May 4 finished at 78 cps. I would say that’s the ceiling internally AVZ holds onto as best outcome to sell and defeat any legal claim because AVZ warned you on May 4 about conflicts implicitly. And you would have to show you understood and relied on AVZ statements to keep holding beyond May 4 2022.

IMO it gets HARDER, you then have to show what would you have done if AVZ had not confused you, or advised you —as you may allege, insufficiently on May 4? You have to show the judge an intention to have been wanting to sell or was selling — without that you may not have a claim that you relied on AVZ statements.Many here will fail that test.

so yes, corporate law makes it hard for regular punters to realise justice because they don’t understand the coded language or culture like industry insider nor the corporate law autisms favouring miscreants . Even then industry insiders can be fooled. So be warned IMO AVZ Lawyers strategically dialled in AVZ May 4 2022 with a view how to screw up legal action against the directors and or company.( Different legislation focuses on different entities) because it’s their job.

so, what’s the bottom line? I think— could be wrong—Omnibridgeway class action is an institution from the 2021June CR or the December 2021 raising. Irrespective of who is the lead applicant in the OB class action, any one of those institutions probably has a fiduciary duty to its investor which would prompt a duty to seek legal recourse.

so,

13.5 cps would be the lowest worst case to match 2021 raising. Recall the investors in that raising may not have known Dathomir was declaring the SPAs cancelled on May 14 2022 letter. This is no easy push over, Whoever you want to believe is behind Dathomir other than Simon Cong, Simon Cong himself is no push over with his Congolese beneficiaries backing him. AVZ made enemies and they would still be resisting without their share of proceeds to come. In my view Kabila wants something still, he could just walk into GOMA without a hassle just recently. He is a player.

50cps December 2021 investors — this is the key group to worry IMO for AVZ. All the Chinese 2019/2020 investors got in super cheap thanks to Nigel’s cunning craft

as stated this is in my opinion —legal fact arguments may focus elsewhere including any insufficiency about AVZ disclosure on May 4 2022. But a judge may just accept AVZ gave warning (even if implicit (not explicitly)), that the JV is conflicted with rivalry — that should be enough for a reasonable ordinary investor to sell — a judge may reason so, and get on with an early lunch or afternoon tea.

above 50cps, even a little below might allow AVZ to survive a class action. Of course regular punters who have felt cheated will get cheated again— many lawyers like OB will milk till the 8th sun rises on the 7th day.

Besides that any bad news from the Australian jurisidiction concerning Marius etc (AFP investigation) would also temper expectation and it’s a reasonable to speculate that this is another pressure point to get a result before any potential bad news emerges. AVZ’s access to this project started with influencers, none other than Klaus, and how AVZ acquired the project was sufficiently sensitive to make it the subject of an Sponsored editorial in BullsnBears Matt Birney 2024. Let’s just say, Cong is mentioned 18 times but the political figures 0 zero 0