The following is for discussion only and is not a...

The following is for discussion only and is not a recommendation, advice or anything other than chatroom banter. 

I am beginning to realise what the problem is with facts based analysis. You end up getting "feedback" from emotional investors who really dont understanding what the key drivers are behind stocks like this.

I agree with most of what you say but I am now at a cross roads. My thoughts are that this stock is worth around $2.80 based on what we know at the moment and taking into account recent events but where to from there? How accurate are the forecasts released from AMP and at what multiple should they be traded? My own longer term estimates leave us with dividends at about $0.10-$0.12 for a couple of years which seems unfathomable to some people. 

We haven't hear much about the 5 class actions and the company has not provisioned for them as far as I know so do we take that as a positive sign or is there a possibility that there is a skeleton that will leap out in a few months? What is the likely cost of this anyway/

I know the company has been reducing costs across all platforms which looks good to the regulators but what will this do to profits? Given the loss of FUM and the reduced margin on remaining FUM revenues have only one way to go. 

Cosider; Reduced margin on FUM and platforms revenues, loss of insurance revenue, outflow of clients and FUM, future growth potential reduced margin from cash and fixed interests related products and the performance of the current management over the last 5 years.

Is it just me or is there some valid reason why some people seem to think that this stock has potential to get back to above $5 or even $3.50? Broadly speaking to get to $4 it would have to trade on over 15 times EPS with dividends of around $0.25-$0.30 and solid ongoing performance and growth. This would also require some certainty of no more skeletons in the cupboard (class actions, regulatory hits etc.)

It is also fascinating to me to see posters talk about intra day upswings whilst ignoring that from an investment point of view this stock has lost 50% of it's value over 6 months. TO be honest I am having a bit of a laugh at some people who are talking this stock up on the basis that they have purchased at exactly the bottom of the market. A look back at some of these posters comments show most of them have been talking the stock up all the way down from $3.50.