from speccy to mid tier producer

ORD is undergoing a rapid transformation at current from a minnow that lacked credibility to a turn around story (2009) that promises a very exciting future in the years ahead.

Thinking out aloud there would hardly be a stock on the asx that has on its plate what ORD river has today for a similar market cap. As I look through all of the announcements for the last 6 months the rate of progression becomes evident and quite fascinating.

Lets focus in on the Alumina project for a minute.

ORD are proposing the listing of SARCO on the asx either late this year or early next of which ORD will hold a significant parcel of this company. According to the presentations 1.2mtpa of alumina will be achieved in a relatively short time period. On top of this there is huge potential to go beyond this.

Now as a shareholder I seek clarification of this project and the validity of such claims. The company's release regarding Ernst & Young, RBC and Purple today puts my reservations to rest. The project is as sure sealed as it can be imo.

Further to this in 2009 there was a pivotal shift involving Peter Shou and from hereonin NFC would have been probably sitting ok on this adjustment.

In a recent conversation with Frank he mentioned 5 - 10 year time frame before the wheels really get turning (massive) it has been released to the market that SARCO will be similar size to that of AWC. This is a $5.5B company.

There are a few Q's remaining. Such as the JORC upgrade imo it will come and be massive. Think would CMBC propose hundreds of millions without a resource. Ding dong the resource is massive and the project will run heavy profits. These guys already know the numbers we are piddly shareholders to these financial institutions the numbers stack up otherwise they would not be there. This is a huge vote of confidence in the company and business. Remember ORD's cap is 40m and the loan was for at least 400m, not DILUTION a LOAN, i repeat LOAN, where else does this happen?

So in terms of market cap calculations we cannot derive an exact figure because we missing some retainment details however given the refinery is $600m my short term target in the next 2/3 months is about 100m or 20cps. Of course there is room to move up into the 30's and 40's as things get closer toward construction and production.

This of course assumes a positive FS and JORC which imo are already satisfied.

The other thing that needs mentioning is the NFC major shareholder: offtake...? These guys are movers and shakers. Seen the graph for alu demand into china over the Medium term. ORD is positioned perfectly. The government is dealing with them on a regular basis in negotiating tenements and dealing with GRAM.


My previous calculation was only 1 project. Another massive one we may hear about anyday is CCD. 5mt of coal to be exported from 2015 if this comes off, the deal must be very close now. There are also 2 others that are in there infancy.

As shareholders the patience needed to see out the size and scope of the projects is my priority. This has the potential to go beyond 1 dollar. If I did not think that I would not invest today. There is a FMG out there in every market I believe ORD is that FMG. There will be the ups and downs but ORD has the potential to be the diversified mining house that many cannot even dream of.

I picture a story that has taken a long time to grow but each and every step that the chinese have taken they have done so very carefully and methondically. Look at the way they have targeted a diverse resource base. Also the slow process by which resources are proved as to reduce shareholder dilution. You cannot go and drill hell and back out of something straight away as this is too costly. ORD has done this marvellous imo.

For me I look toward a 100m to 300m cap by christmas time depending on how the cards fall. My heavyresearch at sub 5c is starting to pay dividends. I have a feeling we may look back at christmas and say Gee only 6 months ago she was 10c.

Would like to hear the thoughts of others.