CTP

0.00%

4.8¢ central petroleum limited

From the AFR, page-16

First 16 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
buddy134

24,386 Posts.

176

13/06/16

22:45

Post #: 18022501
Share

Originally posted by psi81 ↑

We don't know how much MBL paid for the gas because the value of the deal wasn't announced. All we know is that it is more than $10M for 5.2 PJ, which is where the $1.92/GJ figure comes from.

But the value is more than that because MBL also cancelled the production bonus rights owed by CTP which had a value to CTP of $2.5M to $8.75M.

ON TOP OF THAT there is an unspecified amount of money for "new reserve growth activities." We don't know how much that is but as I have said before, we may be able to glean it from upcoming quarterlies if it's listed as a separate item.

CTP has pointed out that basically any GSA above current production is going to vest at least the first stage of the production bonus rights, so the value is at least $12.5M.

Another thing you need to consider is the discount factor. The GSA is for a period of 3 years starting around the beginning of 2019, meaning the midpoint of the sales period is approx. 4 years from now (the date of cash receipt). On a 10% discount factor, that's 50% more value right there, so $10M today is worth ~$15M in 2020. For a company like CTP, 10% is probably the bare minimum DF you'd consider.

All in all, MBL probably paid somewhere around $15M, which discounted is around $4/GJ. If Mereenie production gets high enough to trigger the full production bonus payment, the value to CTP will be, on a discounted basis, over $5/GJ by my calculation.

In this way, both MBL and CTP win. On face value the loser is Magellan, but for a cash-strapped company getting that cash up-front is probably considered a win for them too.

Expand

""( meaning the midpoint of the sales period is approx. 4 years from now (the date of cash receipt). ""

Okay then. If that is the case, what is the price of gas going to be in 4 years from now.??

Who is then going to be the winner out of this deal.??

For all we know, the gas in 4 years time could be at $5 or $6 per GJ, and it could be even up to $20 per GJ too.

Fair is fair IMHO.

CTP Price at posting: 9.7¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
1 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

NVA

Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

Capital raisings wrap: Brainchip, Ovanti, Lake and VHM

MND

Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

RHK

Red Hawk upgrades Blacksmith with DSO mineral resource at the Eagle Deposit

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to rise for Friday session | July 26

IGO

IGO kicks off earn-in copper drilling on-site Encounter's Yeneena play as it adopts new identity

HRZ

Horizon firms up ore reserve for Boorara ahead of FY25 Q1 development decision

MIN

MinRes jumps 5% as the company meets production guidance – depressed iron ore prices be damned

TRP

Tissue Repairs soars nearly 32% on TGA approval for wound healing gel

There are more pages in this discussion • 23 more messages in this thread...

First 16 Last

Add CTP (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 4.8¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $35.52M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
4.9¢	4.9¢	4.8¢	$2.624K	53.82K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	980647	4.8¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
4.9¢	189266	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	980647	0.048
1	200000	0.047
1	100000	0.046
3	500000	0.045
2	190000	0.042

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.049	189266	2
0.050	100000	1
0.055	450000	1
0.056	178589	1
0.059	25000	1

Last trade - 16.10pm 26/07/2024 (20 minute delay)

CTP (ASX) Chart

From the AFR, page-16

Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

Capital raisings wrap: Brainchip, Ovanti, Lake and VHM

Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

Red Hawk upgrades Blacksmith with DSO mineral resource at the Eagle Deposit

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to rise for Friday session | July 26

IGO kicks off earn-in copper drilling on-site Encounter's Yeneena play as it adopts new identity

Horizon firms up ore reserve for Boorara ahead of FY25 Q1 development decision

MinRes jumps 5% as the company meets production guidance – depressed iron ore prices be damned

Tissue Repairs soars nearly 32% on TGA approval for wound healing gel

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

From the AFR, page-16

Top Stories

Nova locks in NASDAQ US market listing at a value of only US$3.3M as ASX gets quieter and quieter

Nine's staff strike as Paris Olympic coverage begins

Capital raisings wrap: Brainchip, Ovanti, Lake and VHM

Monadelphous inks $200M contract with Woodside to help build Pluto LNG – but will it make Scarborough cheaper?

Red Hawk upgrades Blacksmith with DSO mineral resource at the Eagle Deposit

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to rise for Friday session | July 26

IGO kicks off earn-in copper drilling on-site Encounter's Yeneena play as it adopts new identity

Horizon firms up ore reserve for Boorara ahead of FY25 Q1 development decision

MinRes jumps 5% as the company meets production guidance – depressed iron ore prices be damned

Tissue Repairs soars nearly 32% on TGA approval for wound healing gel

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News