"In the case of SARAH is success so clear cut, what if the results show 3.9 months improvement in OS then it is all a failure but if the outcome is 4.1 months then "Eureka" we have success".
Yes I believe that to be the case. If the outcome is 3.9 months my bet is that you would get a very good buying opportunity in SRX the next day.
It is just a question of statistics, not of how good the drug is. And I confess (despite my degree in maths) the maths behind it is a little complex and beyond me. But as an example, if you had a trial size of two patients, one of whom lived longer than the other, it would basically prove nothing. There are too many other variables.
But as you say, 3.9 months is a good result if you are an unfortunate patient with this disease. So one would think that a result of this nature would lead to increased dose sales even though the primary outcome of one particular trial fails.
So, in summary it pays with companies such as Sirtex to pay really close attention to what is being announced. Evidence suggests this is beyond the majority of many market commentators.
SRX Price at posting:
$35.51 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)