If the Armstrong cycle is working on equities, and I am not 100%...

If the Armstrong cycle is working on equities, and I am not 100% convinced just yet, we also have major cycles bottoming in 2012 and 2013 IMO.

Because these are close, in long cycle terms, then you would expect the first to be the most severe drop, the second to be less so.

So the picture you expect to see is either 2011 being the lowest low and the next two be higher lows OR and more usual is a H&S pattern with the 2012 low a bit lower than 2011 and 2013 being a higher low.