while Dud stands as leader, of courser its way too early -...

while Dud stands as leader, of courser its way too early - unless one plans to take over the leadership..... which I'm pretty sure Frydenberg would win hands down.

so really your logic is ok as long as no-one is planning a spill and challenge to Dud's leadership.

this next 4-6 months is in the right timing frame for a spill.