FSA Maintain Buy, page-9

  1. 170 Posts.
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    The change to the Bankruptcy Notice compliance period from 6 months to 21 days basically placed a moratorium on the whole industry. The number of personal insolvencies collapsed, the opposite of what you would expect to happen in a recession, and I guess indicative of the success of the government's policies.

    The Australian Financial Security Authority (AFSA) publishes a quarterly report and fortnightly data series which gives you a fairly contemporaneous picture of what is going on in this sector.
    https://www.afsa.gov.au/statistics/personal-insolvency-statistics-0
    https://www.afsa.gov.au/about-us/statistics/fortnightly-bankruptcy-and-personal-insolvency-statistics

    Now the compliance period has reverted back to 21 days as at 1 Jan so you may see a pickup in activity. The bankruptcy threshold has been permanently increased as others have noted.

    So I would be expecting a very bad print on the insolvency side of the business for the first half. Personal loans should also be quite weak judging by industry comps. Personal credit has declined significantly and savings boosted. Home loans should be the one bright spot as the housing market is going gangbusters.

    Government policies have effectively reversed the economic impact on this business (normally in a weaker economy you would expect elevated insolvencies but lower home loan originations).


 
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