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35.5¢ warrego energy limited

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PokerMoe

14,849 Posts.

408

31/08/19

09:27

Post #: 40257709
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Originally posted by FeO(OH) ↑

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Wrote on phone.. so could be mistakes.
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Now it is the weekend, I thought I will share where I am at the moment with Warrego share value.
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Disclaimer this is not financial advice, just my thoughts.
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The best way to value this company is using AWE Waitsia discovery and the subsequent take over.
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As stated in offical documents 83% of AWE’s 2P reserves were attributable to Waitsia providing a market valuation of $503 million for its 50% of Waitsia.
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Waitsia gas field 836 PJ 2P Reserves. 50% for AWE would be 418 PJ. Therefore $503 million for 418 PJ of Gas.
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Note: On average 1 bcf of sales gas = 1.055 petajoules. To make things simple just going to use 1=1.
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So $503 million for 418 BCF.
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West Erregulla Primary Target (BCF) Prospective Resource.
P50 Kingia = 454 BCF, P50 High Cliff = 462 BCFP10 Kingia = 670 BCF, P10 High cliff = 627 BCF.
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Based on what has been released and Managing Directors of both STX and WGO. The have hit Kingia that is WAY above expectations. I also read management believe its higher than P10. I believe we can safely say we have at least 700 BCF in the Kingia unit.
IMO though based on the net pay double the Waitsia - 4 thickness its over 1 TCF in Kingia..
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Some estimation.
Based on AWE values $503 million for 418 BCF we can give a value of $1.196 mill per 1 BCF. Let round to $1.2 mill per 1 BCF.
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So not including Wagina or potentially High Cliff.
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If Kingia has 700 BCF and WGO receives 50%. That is 350 BCF for WGO with a potential value of $420 million.Based on my opinion that Kingia could be over 1 TCF. Say WGO has 50% thats 500 BCF which gives WGO $600 million.
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Now lets add in Wagina. P50 for Wagina 247 BCF and P10 is 372 BCF. I am going to use 300 BCF for Wagina. So that would be 150 BCF for WGO with a value of $180 million.
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So being conservative and using the 700 BCF for Kingia with 350 BCF for WGO and the 300 BCF for Wagina and 150 BCF for WGO. At the moment the value could be $600 million.
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If using my +1 TCF for Kingia the value would be $780 million for WGO at this stage (obviously still need flow tests, wireline, potential appraisal well etc).
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Now the fun begins and we think about High Cliff which has higher amplitudes then Kingia.
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If we say that the High Cliff is same as Kingia as ~P10 thats 700 BCF. So Kingia $420mill, High Cliff $420mill and Wagina $180mill.
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That gives WGO market value of $1.02 billion.. .
What if though…
Kingia is 1 TCF and High cliff is 1 TCF and Wagina is 500 BCF…
That would give WGO a value of…. $1.5 billion. Or $2.38 per share based on 630mill shares.
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Next week should be exciting, but lets say High Cliff doesn’t hit.
I still see this field could be worth min about $600 mill for WGO. Which gives about 95 cents as base.WGO current MC is about $240 mill.
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Good luck all, please remember all above is my thoughts there is still lots of other variable at play. But my above thoughts meant I loaded up in WGO like no tomorrow.
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Expand

Your only valuing the golden egg... what about the goose?...

“• Warrego holds a 50% non-operated interest in EP469”

Just thinking KEY, PGY and NWE sp movements since this find. Potential value certainly adds to the overall.

As long as it flows mate.

WGO Price at posting: 37.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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