Fun may be just starting for GillardPUBLISHED: 2 HOURS 54...

Fun may be just starting for Gillard

PUBLISHED: 2 HOURS 54 MINUTES AGO

PHILLIP COOREY Chief political correspondent

In isolation, none of the various events of the past two weeks has been calamitous. In combination, they are a disaster. The government looks like a rabble, even if it’s not.

The ham-fisted replacement of Trish Crossin with Nova Peris was, as one backbencher put it, “not end-of the-world dumb, just indicative dumb’’.

Rudd supporter and former attorney-general Robert McClelland’s decision to retire was expected and typical for a backbencher in an election year.

The decision to call the election in eight months was a risk but not a deadly one and may yet work.

The arrest of former Labor MP Craig Thomson was damaging, predicted to happen at some stage, but no-one knew when.

And Labor was never going to escape the opprobrium from the ICAC hearings in NSW which are plumbing the mire that was state Labor.

Together, though, it was messy and why, people are asking, on the back of all this, would two ministers, both of whom are avowed supporters of Julia Gillard, decide to announce their resignations?

No matter how genuine the reasoning, ministerial resignations in an election year are never a good look. They reek of pessimism about the government’s election prospects.

These resignations are reminiscent of Michael Wooldridge, John Moore and Peter Reith pulling the pin on John Howard in early 2001, when his position was almost as dire as Gillard’s is now.

Moore went straight away and caused the damaging Ryan by-election. Like Roxon will do, Reith and Wooldridge at least hung around until the election.

Evans, who has been in parliament for 20 years, and Roxon, who has been there for 15, have wanted to go for a year. At least one wanted to call it quits at the end of last year. It would have been a good time, done along with the decision to ditch the budget surplus promise.

Gillard, by her own admission on Saturday, thought it a good idea to wait until the new year to give the government’s leadership a fresh look.

She wasn’t to know back then just how bad this year would start.

Reshuffling late last year risked sparking leadership speculation, especially as December is the traditional killing season.

Doing it now, just before parliament resumes, allows the ballot for Senate leader to be over and done with quickly and there is no need to waste money to convene an out-of-session caucus meeting.

In hindsight, the timing has been a mistake. Given the speed politics moves at these days, all this could be just a distant memory in a fortnight. Or not.

There were clever elements to Saturday’s reshuffle. Gillard promoted four Rudd supporters – Chris Bowen, Mike Kelly, Kelvin Thomson and Melissa Parke.

Justine Elliot was demoted but Gillard said she wanted out. People close to Elliott dispute this but Gillard is emphatic.

Ultimately, Gillard has reshuffled for the third time in just over a year.

Already, Tony Abbott is calling on Gillard to bring forward the September 14 election. Repeatedly on Saturday he said people wanted strength and stability. He wouldn’t need a focus group to tell him that.

Rudd is circling and if the polls in coming weeks reflect just how bad this all looks, it may be that the fun has just started.

The Australian Financial Review