I think Judo is suffering because their term funding facility (TFF) with the RBA expires in June 2024 and their cost of funding will increase. I took a small loss on Judo and sold my shares a while ago as I wasn't confident in the outlook for small businesses (Higher electricity, higher wages, higher interest rates ect.). In an economic expansion it is definitely one to consider and a margin for the risk is probably already incorporated into the current shares trading down 25% in the past 6 months. The main risk is a large outflow of funding such as the US banking crisis earlier in the year would see a capital flight from Judo to the more diversified and substantially larger banks (big 4 + Macquarie). I'm not sure how Judo can say their model works through the cycle as they haven't been through a full cycle yet, although covid was a big test for them, nothing compared to the GFC. One to possibly watch with RBA cuts on the cards for next year and if a soft landing can be achieved.
