I may be completely wrong, but I tend to like today's scenario, where there is more uncertainty on the economy, which is driving long term rates down. As I remain convinced that long term rates are the main element to determine asset prices. The US 10 year treasury rate had a significant correction from around 4.75 % at the end of April to 3.80 % now.
Interesting to see that there was a similar move for the US 10 year treasury rate between 19/10/23 and 27/12/23, when US 10 year went from 5 % to 3.79 %. During that period, SP500 increased by 12 %.
What may be different this time : the market may be driven by non tech sectors. So far, I have been quite surprised by the good results of Australian companies in more traditional sectors, like retail or construction.
