China While official figures still show a GDP growth between 4 % and 5 % in China, the reality is worse than that for foreign companies in China.
2 examples published this month by The Economist : - the sales in China of listed American and European companies (that disclosed them) peaked at 670 bn$ in 2021. In 2023, these sales were 650 bn$. - the trend is the same in 2024 with half of the companies (that report quarterly sales in China) had a decrease of their sales (yoy) in the most recent reported period.
This can be explained both by questionable official statistics and the loss of market shares for foreign companies. Of course, the main question is to wonder if it is just cyclical. What remains surprising is that China is still quite reluctant to implement a large stimulus plan to push consumption, while they have the financial means to do it. The more they wait, the more they risk to turn into a deflationary situation.
