Fundamental Analysis of Alexium (Report)

Some of you may remember I asked for Nick Clark's email because I was planning to write up a research report for my investment blog (and to help me apply for hedge funds). I haven't contacted him yet, and will do so when I'm done just to confirm some numbers and assumptions. So far I have only used publicly announced information (ASX).

I have finished about half of the report now, I just need to finish building my IFS and DCF models and input the assumptions, then update the report with some metrics and some qualitative data. You can read the report here:

https://absoluterampfund.wordpress....5-buy-alexium-international-group-ltd-ajx-ax/

*Please note my blog is still in the early stages so there's still some inconsistencies and outdated information and formatting issues around the site.

I realise many people have been looking for numbers. I arrive at the following through my fundamental analysis:

Top range:
Contract 1 Revenue = 1,500,000*3/4 = USD$1,125,000
Contract 3 Revenue = 1,870,000*3/4 = USD$1,402,500
Contract 4 Revenue = 10,000,000*2/4 = USD$5,000,000
Total 2015 Revenue = USD$7,527,500
Balanced range:
Contract 1 Revenue = [(1,500,000+1,000,000)/2]*3/4 = USD$937,500
Contract 3 Revenue = [(1,870,000+936,000)/2]*3/4 = USD$1,052,250
Contract 4 Revenue = [(10,000,000+3,000,000)/2]*2/4 = USD$3,250,000
Total 2015 Revenue = USD$5,239,750
Bottom range:
Contract 1 Revenue = 1,000,000*3/4 = USD$750,000
Contract 3 Revenue = 936,000*3/4 = USD$702,000
Contract 4 Revenue = 3,000,000*2/4 = USD$1,500,000
Total 2015 Revenue = USD$2,952,000

Please take a look at my blog to see the valuation assumptions and drivers that I used to arrive at those figures. I consider the Balanced Range to be fairly spot on as it coincides with Nick's "revenue forecasts" (see Sanity Check for more info).

If I have missed any price sensitive information in my analysis, please tell me. I would love any extra information.