Hi Pinto, I agree because I can't see us being cash flow...

Hi Pinto, I agree because I can't see us being cash flow positive by the FY15 annual report. However, the numbers I gave are for projections on the financial statements so I can build a model to estimate share price.

So the difference is, I agree that Nick means cash flow positive by end of calendar year 2015 but for the purposes of my report I need to go by the financial year that AJX reports in.

I realised my calculations used calendar year so I'm doing a revision and including FX difference (which shows up on the company's financial statements). However, the previous quarterly only showed $10,000 in revenue, whilst the previous 3 quarters only $72,000 so I have a feeling my targets will be missed at the annual. I'm going to adjust this later tonight.

Quick explanation of reasoning and methodology and why I think my targets will be missed at the annual - I took the each contract's annual revenue and divided it equally into quarters to factor in the fact that we're not going to get a full year's annual revenue when there isn't a full year left. However, practically speaking I don't expect a contract's revenue to be evenly distributed. It makes sense that the beginning of a contract has much less cash flow as terms, production, etc. are ironed out. I'll weight the cash flow distribution to come to more accurate figures later, but here's a new projection to include FX difference and give a rough idea of annual report targets. I expect it will be overstated by a good 20% or so, but I maintain the calendar year target is still accurate.

Revenue Projection Revision:

FX Difference, average USD/AUD for FY2015 (so far):
Jul = 1.065409
Aug = 1.074151
Sep = 1.105891
Oct = 1.140902
Nov = 1.156015
Dec = 1.214460
Jan = 1.238981
Feb = 1.282651
Mar = 1.294512
Apr = 1.292877
May = 1.257056
Average FX = 1.192991

Top range:
Contract 1 Revenue = 1,500,000*3/4 = USD$1,125,000
Contract 3 Revenue = 1,870,000*3/4 = USD$1,402,500
Contract 4 Revenue = 10,000,000*2/4 = USD$5,000,000
Total Calendar Year 2015 Revenue = USD$7,527,500 = AUD$8,980,239.75
Total FY 2015 Revenue = USD$842,500 = AUD$1,005,094.92
Balanced range:
Contract 1 Revenue = [(1,500,000+1,000,000)/2]*3/4 = USD$937,500
Contract 3 Revenue = [(1,870,000+936,000)/2]*3/4 = USD$1,052,250
Contract 4 Revenue = [(10,000,000+3,000,000)/2]*2/4 = USD$3,250,000
Total Calendar Year 2015 Revenue = USD$5,239,750 = AUD$6,250,974.59
Total FY 2015 Revenue = USD$663,250 = AUD$791,251.28
Bottom range:
Contract 1 Revenue = 1,000,000*3/4 = USD$750,000
Contract 3 Revenue = 936,000*3/4 = USD$702,000
Contract 4 Revenue = 3,000,000*2/4 = USD$1,500,000
Total Calendar Year 2015 Revenue = USD$2,952,000 = AUD$3,521,709.43
Total FY 2015 Revenue = USD$484,000 = AUD$577,407.64