SRN 11.1% 1.0¢ surefire resources nl

Fundamental valuation

  1. 548 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 206
    Ok so this popped up in my scans because of a chart breakout potential.

    Looking at the fundamentals of the iron ore project:

    2.5mtpa x $160 per tonne = $400m per year revenue
    Let's say 50% margin given $80/t OPEX so that leaves $200m per year EBITDA over 40 years.

    SRN is trading at $20m market cap, or 0.1 P/E ratio. Most of these miners should trade at least and very conservatively 5x P/E ratio given they are cash printing machines so that means a 50x upside from the current share price. Oh and if they get it to 10mtpa per the target and not just base case 2.5mtp.a, then that's a 200x upside to the current share price to get to fair value P/E.

    Oh and I didn't add the Gold project to this valuation. Or the Vanadium project. Those are all additional bonuses to the valuation.

    50x to 200x upside is a no brainer at these levels, no wonder the chart is showing so much strength. Definitely buying in at the next market open. Seems like something very much under the radar as there's hardly anyone on HC talking about it.

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4266/4266578-924c27dc1c9d661416bde8ce0f473d8c.jpg

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/4266/4266581-1da7fcc59129d0d81737b3fab9cb9a6e.jpg
 
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