Hi everyone,
Here's my back of the envelope calculations and assumptions for the Buffalo Oil project and Dorado Oil discovery.
The Buffalo development costs are based on the info provided by CVN in their presentation ($150m cap ex, $100m P.A x 4yrs op ex).
Some other assumptions (mainly with Dorado) are just a ball park guess based on my limited knowledge, but I would be interested in what others have come up with and the figures they have used.
Everything is in USD except the value per CVN share price which I've converted to AUD.
This is obviously very back of the envelope figures, DYOR.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 0 Dorado Oil 1 Low case (1c) Mid case (2c) High case (3c) 2 Recoverable oil 82,000,000 171,000,000 320,000,000 3 Revenue $65/b $5,330,000,000 $11,115,000,000 $20,800,000,000 4 Cap ex -$500,000,000 -$500,000,000 -$500,000,000 5 Op ex $20/b -$1,640,000,000 -$3,420,000,000 -$6,400,000,000 6 Gross profit $3,190,000,000 $7,195,000,000 $13,900,000,000 7 Tax - 40% -$1,276,000,000 -$2,878,000,000 -$5,560,000,000 8 NPAT $1,914,000,000 $4,317,000,000 $8,340,000,000 9 CVN share (20%) $382,800,000 $863,400,000 $1,668,000,000 10 $ per CVN share in AUD $0.449 $1.012 $1.955 11 12 13 Buffalo Oil 14 Low case (1c) Mid case (2c) High case (3c) 15 Recoverable oil 15,300,000 31,100,000 47,800,000 16 Revenue $994,500,000 $2,021,500,000 $3,107,000,000 17 Cap ex -$150,000,000 -$150,000,000 -$150,000,000 18 Op ex -$400,000,000 -$400,000,000 -$400,000,000 19 Gross profit $444,500,000 $1,471,500,000 $2,557,000,000 20 Tax - 40% -$177,800,000 -$588,600,000 -$1,022,800,000 21 NPAT $266,700,000 $882,900,000 $1,534,200,000 22 $ per CVN share in AUD $0.31 $1.03 $1.80 23 24 Assumptions 25 Shares on issue 1,200,000,000 26 Oil price $65.00 27 Dorado production costs $20.00 28 1 AUD = $1.4065 USD $1.407
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