CVN 2.94% 16.5¢ carnarvon energy limited

Fundamental Value, page-98

  1. 3,409 Posts.
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    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4
    0 Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4
    1 Dorado Oil      
    2   Low case (1c) Mid case (2c) High case (3c)
    3 Recoverable oil 82,000,000 171,000,000 320,000,000
    4 Revenue $75/b $6,150,000,000 $12,825,000,000 $24,000,000,000
    5 Cap ex -$500,000,000 -$500,000,000 -$500,000,000
    6 Op ex $20/b -$1,640,000,000 -$3,420,000,000 -$6,400,000,000
    7 Gross profit $4,010,000,000 $8,905,000,000 $17,100,000,000
    8 Tax - 40% $1,604,000,000 $3,562,000,000 $6,840,000,000
    9 NPAT $2,406,000,000 $5,343,000,000 $10,260,000,000
    10 CVN share (20%) $481,200,000 $1,068,600,000 $2,052,000,000
    11 $ per CVN share in AUD $0.62 $1.37 $2.62
    12        
    13        
    14 Buffalo Oil      
    15   Low case (1c) Mid case (2c) High case (3c)
    16 Recoverable oil 15,300,000 31,100,000 47,800,000
    17 Revenue $1,147,500,000 $2,332,500,000 $3,585,000,000
    18 Cap ex -$150,000,000 -$150,000,000 -$150,000,000
    19 Op ex -$306,000,000 -$622,000,000 -$956,000,000
    20 Gross profit $691,500,000 $1,560,500,000 $2,479,000,000
    21 Tax - 40% $276,600,000 $624,200,000 $991,600,000
    22 NPAT $414,900,000 $936,300,000 $1,487,400,000
    23 $ per CVN share in AUD $0.53 $1.20 $1.90
    24        
    25 Assumptions      
    26 Shares on issue 1,100,000,000    
    27 Oil price $75.00    
    28 Dorado production costs $20.00    
    29 1 AUD = $1.4065 USD $1.41    

    Updated your spreadsheet, believe I got it right.

    All figures in US dollars until $ per CVN share in AUD.

    Massively undervalued.
 
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