fundamental view

When a stock SP drops there's always a raft of TA explaining the drop and
predicting the future and NCM is no exception. For fundamentalists, however,
the emphasis should be on the forward prospects of the company, its
production, costs, NPAT, EPS and dividends.

So to balance the TA's let's look at the company's prospects over the next
2 years as per the recent 2012 AGM report:

P 6 says:

Production FY 2012 was 2.29 mil ozs AU

Forecasts (again P6) says:

2013................2.3 mil - 2.5 mil ozs Au
2014............... 3.1 mil - 3.5 mil ozs Au. ( with coresponding lift in CU prod. )

This will likely be achieved, IMO, with lower costs due to plant reliability.
(this report says that most of the spending on plant repairs and upgrades
has already been done)

The 2014 forecast lift in production is very significant and if the POG remains
at where it is or better during the QE3s , then EPS is likely to lift proportional to
production. This could , IMO, be up to 44%
(a lift in production of 1.01 mil ozs over 2012's 2.29 mil ozs)

Perhaps those familiar with the fundamentals of the company would like to add further detail re future production, costs, npat, EPS & P/E, divvies etc.

The graphs indicate clearly where the share price has been.

Thank you
Moorookamick