fundamentals analysis with collective efforts, page-15

Forget about it. chances are too remote unless you could summon the institutional investors eg. Barclays Capital who is still in VPG with above 5% holding.

Let's just do what we can on this forum.

I take some comfort from the fact that, as I mentioned earlier,

a. the charts of BBI and VPG showed that share prices of the two had reasonably strong co-relation over the last month.
The 3-year charts between the two indicated even stronger co-relation.

Both companies are similar in nature (though BBI is more defensive) and both affected severely by credit crunch.

The steady BBI share price ramp up since Nov. 08 does give us some comfort that VPG is not quite likely not to dip too much.

b. I viewed the VPG chart for the last 3 months and noticed that buying volumes at 4-6c was very thin, and most recent holders including most directors entered at above 8c. Hence, dumping at low price would be limited especially as people realise its good value;

c. For 1.5 hours or longer in the afternoon when I observed, sell orders between 0.097-0.105 remained unchanged, and for quite a while before 3:30pm, price was sticky at 0.096. It was only in the last 30 mins that the price dropped to 0.091, as D/Ts and those scared by poor US unemployment news started to sell out.

This suggests that there are a big number of longer-term holders out there who see the value in VPG and thus are reluctant to sell at low price.

d. despite the poor US employment figures announced last Friday, the market is expecting Obama's massive stimulous plan to be passed by Congress, and some analysts even expected potential rally next week.

e. In the lead up to CNP/CER news announcement, there might be some investors taking profit in CNP/CER holding and shift to VPG, which is cheaper and has good fundamentals still.

Also, with BNB's uncertainties and BBP opening its book to potential suitors, investors in these two and even BBI may look to diversify their position in VPG.

In view of the above, whilst there might be some short-term volatility in sp amid uncertainties in the US, there may be an uptick in the US next week,and thus local share market rally.

let's keep our fingers crossed that we can see some real hope/light from Obama's stimulous package that intends to create 4 mln jobs.