Thank you for your posts ,, what do you see as the Catalyst for...

First 219 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
NZ Trader

13,431 Posts.

7273

18/07/23

14:25

Post #: 68845154
Share

Originally posted by Onspeed: ↑

Hi CJ, sorry for the slow reply. There is no guarantees in regards to future share price but doing these envelope studies can give personal expectations of how market will price in a well decision. I've attached a corrected currency model below (goes to show it always pays to triple check others work incase they (I) make a silly mistake).

What I'm doing with this spreadsheet is trying to find a potential risked value for the Wagtail prospect, this is called the Expected Net Present Value or EPV/ENPV. This is the figure that I expect the market to value in to the company once drill funding comes in to prove the prospect. The figure is calculated by using the NPV of a success case multiplied by the COS, in this case the chance of success being 57%. You can model out these values for any prospect of FDR's but it is most fairly used on Wagtail as historical drilling has proven that there is oil there and thus confidence factors put the resource estimate into the contingent category.

I've arrived at an ENPV of 7.2M pound net to finder (20% equity) so I consider it fair to price in around 30% of that once drill funding is secured. I would simple add this 30% to the market cap. I use conservative data assumptions so the market, in theory, should apply a higher value but obviously there are more pertinent factors like marketing and market appreciation for a particular company that will ultimately shape the share price.

TL/DR: With drilling funded for Wagtail I think an FDR MCap of between $16m - $25m is fair. On a successful drill case I think a MCap of $50m - $70m is fair. Just for Wagtail alone.

p.s. let me know if you want me to do some more of these models for other prospects

Expand

Thank you for your posts ,, what do you see as the Catalyst for this company to actually start increasing in Value ?

Almost directly after the IPO the SP halved and just hasn't recovered ,, Cheers NZT

FDR Price at posting: 7.3¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Not Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

HotCopper Highlights, Week 24: Israel boosts Energy; Meeka eyes production & Mag7 back

ASX Market Open: Growing war fears to get Week 25 off to poor start | June 16, 2025

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 013 - They changed the IPO rules (and that's a good thing)

AVM

'Sure to be busy': Advance's Yuquivo drilling gets off to top start with first-hole hits

Week 24 Wrap: WW3 looms (again); US econ data tepid & silver surfing

First 219 Last

Add to My Watchlist

What is My Watchlist?

A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.

(20min delay)
Last 6.5¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $18.47M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
0.0¢	0.0¢	0.0¢	$0	0

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	16523	6.5¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
6.5¢	20307	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	16523	0.065
1	35000	0.062
1	8200	0.061
1	10000	0.060
1	55500	0.055

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.065	20307	2
0.069	49694	1
0.070	221428	2
0.084	150000	1
0.087	230850	1

Last trade - 16.12pm 13/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

FDR (ASX) Chart

Day chart unavailable

Thank you for your posts ,, what do you see as the Catalyst for...

HotCopper Highlights, Week 24: Israel boosts Energy; Meeka eyes production & Mag7 back

ASX Market Open: Growing war fears to get Week 25 off to poor start | June 16, 2025

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 013 - They changed the IPO rules (and that's a good thing)

'Sure to be busy': Advance's Yuquivo drilling gets off to top start with first-hole hits

Week 24 Wrap: WW3 looms (again); US econ data tepid & silver surfing

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Thank you for your posts ,, what do you see as the Catalyst for...

Top Stories

HotCopper Highlights, Week 24: Israel boosts Energy; Meeka eyes production & Mag7 back

ASX Market Open: Growing war fears to get Week 25 off to poor start | June 16, 2025

Listen: HotCopper Wire Podcast 013 - They changed the IPO rules (and that's a good thing)

'Sure to be busy': Advance's Yuquivo drilling gets off to top start with first-hole hits

Week 24 Wrap: WW3 looms (again); US econ data tepid & silver surfing

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News