quick question: Did you subtract (1-cos)*well cost from the risked NPV for EMV?
What I'm doing with this spreadsheet is trying to find a potential risked value for the Wagtail prospect, this is called the Expected Net Present Value or EPV/ENPV. This is the figure that I expect the market to value in to the company once drill funding comes in to prove the prospect. The figure is calculated by using the NPV of a success case multiplied by the COS, in this case the chance of success being 57%. You can model out these values for any prospect of FDR's but it is most fairly used on Wagtail as historical drilling has proven that there is oil there and thus confidence factors put the resource estimate into the contingent category.
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