Fundamentals and General Discussion, page-352

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phantommack

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15/06/24

07:58

Post #: 74327732
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Originally posted by Onspeed: ↑

Something that moves the needle would be a farm-out. Once there is definition around drilling of a prospect the market can start pricing in towards that target’s resource estimate. There are specific calculation models to value a drill which accounts for risk etc, and as the drill nears the price should float towards that value, in a perfect world that is. It may overshoot, or undershoot

I’ve looked at FDR’s average time for a partner to farm-in and provide capital for drill. It’s around 2.5 years, which we are coming up to soon, so I use that as an indication on how far away a catalyst is. Also need to factor in that we deal almost exclusively with major companies, which have a slower process of acquisition and expenditure. Majors have drill schedules that are planned out months and years in advance as they typically contract drilling rigs for large campaigns

FDR is very conservative in their spend on exploration unlike basically all other explorers on the ASX, so you can guarantee there will never be a case of diluting and wildcat drilling a target on our dime i.e. don’t expect us to announce a catalyst without a partner being involved.

Once a partner onboards and snaps up project equity in exchange for drill financing I think the market sees proof of FDR’s deal making capability, and we’ll start to price in on our portfolio as a whole, which is objectively world class for a small cap. If that occurs, there’s potential to see $150m market cap or more due to the capital structure and available float

GLTA

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With the portfolio is it conceivable that there is multiple farm outs this year? I’m not sure how it works, but do the new licenses lend the scenario where something like this could occur?

FDR Price at posting: 6.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Fundamentals and General Discussion, page-352

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Fundamentals and General Discussion, page-352

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