Interesting comments from JB - like the good straight answers: expects peak well flows to be re-attained and held longer, extra $20/barrel cost from steam, no field steaming until 2010 (further away than I expected).
By my cal’cs a good valuation is completely dependant on a strong oil price – minimal at $80, good potential at $120.
One fellow I’ve found who’s been very successful in predicting the broad direction of the oil prices is Gwynne Dyer – not an oil specialist, but a wise old journo. Attached might be of interest …if not still good general reads.
