robhood, while i am apparently focussed on negatives, you tend...

robhood, while i am apparently focussed on negatives, you tend to make wild assertions that may or may not be supported by a detailed understanding of PRR.

Assessing probabilities of success is not easy in my view. Right now I am looking at an unlisted biotech project about to enter a Phase II study and an industry guru has asserted that he believes it has a 25% chance of achieving its targets in this trial.

I need to have a detailed chat with him about why he thinks that 25% is the right number because I imagine that he has genuine expertise having reviewed hundreds of broadly "like" situations and therefore has a grasp of the probabilities of this particular project. Whether the correct probability is 25% is a pretty key input into the analysis of the financial returns that might be achieved from the project I am looking at as it is likely to generate approx 8x returns if it comes off. . . . therefore a good bet if true probability is 25%, but a pretty lousy bet if correct probability is 10%.

You have stated that you think that PRR's prospects for success are a little over 50% (paraphrasing you, but I think that is what you mean).

Could you share your analysis that got you to this assessment of probability? And what returns do you envisage if PRR does indeed succeed?

Note that after your sophisticated flaming of me this morning it will be a long time before i give you another thumbs up as no matter how sensible your commentary it seems that you are only moments away from a snide "i had my fingers crossed when i said that" like some petulant grade three child.