Fundamentals (New), page-14

I know Onspeed posted this link above but, I wanted to actually post BTH's AGY's MC est. chart on it's own post, as it's extremely important for all SHs to review.

I'm often asked offline what I think the SP can realistically get to...even though I'm on record as having a $1.40 price target.
( https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/wh...790818/page-548?post_id=30327326#.WsOhOMNuapo)

BTH's chart is great because it forces you to DYOR and look at some of the BASIC variables of AGY.

I actually think some of his figures are on the low side but, this makes his numbers more conservative. From talking to Jerko I get the understanding that he's now anti-dilution. So I like to see AGY get some OT advanced payments and/or take of some debt instead of issuing more shares to fund future S3 CAPEX. By keeping shares under 1B, the SP will rocket and AGY's board knows this.>

As it is now...based on AGY only producing 15,000 tons and a multiple of 15 (a PE of 10 is too conservative)...
the highest price is $3.02

(if the Rincon/Enirgi rumors become true...and AGY get's access to a dramatically larger piece of Rincon via a JV or reverse take-over, then you have to seriously think of looking at 30-50k tons. )

I'm feeling very good about my $1.40 right now.

IMO
DYOR!!

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/fundamentals.3508506/page-684?post_id=30124895#.WsNOgMNuapo

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11	Column 12	Column 13	Column 14	Column 15
1	Capacity t/pa	Income p/t USD	Cost p/t USD	Revenue USD	Profit USD	AGY Earn in %	AGY EBIT USD	USD>AUD	*Shares on Issue (future numbers ballpark)	Conservative Scenario 1 Mcap   (P/E x10)	Projected SP*		Scenario 2 Mcap (Sector P/E x15.79)	Projected SP*	FX rate USD>AUD
2	15,000	18,000	3,500	270,000,000	217,500,000	90.00%	195,750,000	248,821,740	1.3B	2,488,217,400	$1.91		3,928,895,275	$3.02	1.27112
3	10,000	18,000	3,700	180,000,000	143,000,000	90.00%	128,700,000	163,593,144	1.2B	1,635,931,440	$1.36		2,583,135,744	$2.15
4	5,000	19,000	4,000	95,000,000	75,000,000	90.00%	67,500,000	85,800,600	1.1B	858,006,000	$0.78		1,354,791,474	$1.23
5	4,000	20,000	4,300	80,000,000	62,800,000	90.00%	56,520,000	71,843,702	1B	718,437,024	$0.72		1,134,412,061	$1.13
6	3,000	20,000	4,700	60,000,000	45,900,000	90.00%	41,310,000	52,509,967	1B	525,099,672	$0.53		829,132,382	$0.83
7	2,500	22,000	5,000	55,000,000	42,500,000	77.50%	32,937,500	41,867,515	900M	418,675,150	$0.47		661,088,062	$0.73
8	2,000	22,000	5,000	44,000,000	34,000,000	77.50%	26,350,000	33,494,012	900M	334,940,120	$0.37		528,870,449	$0.59
9	1,500	22,000	5,000	33,000,000	25,500,000	77.50%	19,762,500	25,120,509	900M	251,205,090	$0.28		396,652,837	$0.44