Fundamentals (New), page-24

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04/04/18

13:32

Post #: 32213134
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Originally posted by MarketingMan ↑

No guarantee what grade LCE will come out at scale
LOW RISK: Pablo proven lithium process chemist + project too far advanced for this to be a realistic possibility (if lab trials had demonstrated problems, AGY would have pulled out)
- Chinese/other government approvals for foreign investment maybe denied
LOW RISK: In anycase, project is capable of self funding (bootstrapping) if necessary
- Cost of extraction maybe uneconomical
LOW RISK: Good flow rates already demonstrated.
- Fallout between AGY and Puna Mining/Pablo
LOW RISK: Too many vested and aligned interests.
- Planning/cost blowouts
LOW RISK: Capital costs already understood (we know what has been spent on ponds + plant already)
- Plant design failure
LOW RISK: Refer Pablo above.
- Ponds design failure
LOW RISK: It ain't rocket science.
- Plant maybe sabotaged
LOW RISK: Not impossible, but unlikely.
- Exploration/mining permits denied
LOW RISK: Not in Argentina's interest + Pablo well connected and respected with decision makers.
- Dedicated disinformation campaign targeted against AGY
LOW RISK: Already happening, but in the end "show me the Lithium" will be the final proof.
- JORC shows project unviable
LOW RISK: At current and future Lithium prices, even marginal projects will have commercial viability. Again, the in-house feasibility already demonstrates viability.
- Severe weather event
LOW RISK: Weather on the SALAR is very consistent. AGY has already survived severe local rain event this year.
- Political climate sours
MEDIUM RISK: Not impossible that change of government may see a different attitude toward external mining interests. More likely that government may be tempted to raise royalties some years in the future when all lithium mines have been developed and making a packet.
- Process IP maybe stolen
MEDIUM RISK: But low impact - inconvenient and annoying but market is so huge wouldn't matter.
- New battery tech emerges
MEDIUM RISK: Many research projects are underway. However, even if a GENUINE break through technology was announced today, would take 5 years to get to market and a few years plus to reach scale.
- LCE price collapses
LOW RISK: demand forecasts keep on being revised upwards. Car makers are going 'all in" to ensure they don't lose market share and will probably down scale ICE cars because they don't want to be doing both. PLUS Power Grid battery demand is also coming on strong.
- LCE supply/demand reverses
LOW RISK: not so much a risk of a reversal, more a risk that it doesn't come on fast enough to keep up with supply (but would be temporary).
- War
MEDIUM RISK: Not in Argentina, but who knows with K9 Trump at the helm in US, KGB Puttin running amok in Russia and China playing funny buggers.

IMO
DYOR

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Thanks MM!

AGY Price at posting: 31.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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