Fundamentals (New), page-25

No future dilution....

I like the cut of your jib but that's a pretty big call IMO

Stage 3 Capex for either 10ktpa / 15ktpa is going to be somewhere around USD120-160M.

My guess is Mgt will have to give up some equity to an off-take partner for Stage 3 funding a the remainder via debt & sales of Stage 2 output.



But if they can negotiate S3 without dilution then the projected 'ballpark' numbers look way better (see below)

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6	Column 7	Column 8	Column 9	Column 10	Column 11	Column 12	Column 13	Column 14	Column 15
0	Capacity t/pa	Income p/t USD	Cost p/t USD	Revenue USD	Profit USD	AGY Earn in %	AGY EBIT USD	USD>AUD	Shares on Issue (incl Projected)	Scenario 1 Mcap (P/E 10)	Projected SP*		Scenario 2 Mcap (Sector P/E 15.52)	Projected SP*	FX rate USD>AUD
1	15,000	18,000	3,500	270,000,000	217,500,000	90.00%	195,750,000	253,793,790	900M	2,537,937,900	$2.82		3,857,665,608	$4.29	1.29652
2	10,000	18,000	3,700	180,000,000	143,000,000	90.00%	128,700,000	166,862,124	900M	1,668,621,240	$1.85		2,536,304,285	$2.82
3	5,000	19,000	4,000	95,000,000	75,000,000	90.00%	67,500,000	87,515,100	900M	875,151,000	$0.97		1,330,229,520	$1.48
4	4,000	20,000	4,300	80,000,000	62,800,000	90.00%	56,520,000	73,279,310	900M	732,793,104	$0.81		1,113,845,518	$1.24
5	3,000	20,000	4,700	60,000,000	45,900,000	90.00%	41,310,000	53,559,241	900M	535,592,412	$0.60		814,100,466	$0.90
6	2,500	22,000	5,000	55,000,000	42,500,000	77.50%	32,937,500	42,704,128	900M	427,041,275	$0.47		649,102,738	$0.72
7	2,000	22,000	5,000	44,000,000	34,000,000	77.50%	26,350,000	34,163,302	900M	341,633,020	$0.38		519,282,190	$0.58
8	1,500	22,000	5,000	33,000,000	25,500,000	77.50%	19,762,500	25,622,477	900M	256,224,765	$0.28		389,461,643	$0.43