Fundamentals over sentiment

TV2u is in the best place fundamentally it ever has been since its insertion onto the ASX.
The company trades at such a low mcap realisation due imo to sentiment. So what does the company need to do to turn this around?
Lets just analyze where the company is as of today;
Board - Nick Fitzgerald, David Adams, Sophie Raven, Phil Mckeiver & Alan Boyd.
This board is imo the best we have had for years. We have two lawyers working with us that I believe have already shown their worth by recent signings that being the indosat and south africa deals completed in quick time and most importantly completed properly and professionally, I also am in the opinion that they have scoured over all current contracts we have to make sure all are legally efficient and in the best interest of TV2u. David, although a favourite amongst many here is a great asset to the company, however, his role as an IR was only ever going to be a limited one until more appropriate personnel were found. Dont get me wrong, I enjoyed David’s communication (as did a few on here) with his heart on sleeve approach to shareholders, however, I think his information was sometimes misinterpreted and/or misrepresented as opinion instead of fact.
We, right now need facts. I also agree with some here that communication has become frugal and somewhat dry of late, I dont believe that this is the representation of one individual ie Sophie Raven but more a decision by the whole board to present the facts to the market, clear cut with no bulls*t around it. This method, though frustrating now, I think will pay dividends for LT holders when these factual non-emotional announcements are about commercial launches, commercial contracts and revenue forecasts. Tv2u have cried wolf too many times to the market and the market has placed us in the naughty corner until we prove we are not telling fibs anymore. Not that the company was telling fibs but more that they were beholden to misinformation from their own customers,that, comes with the nature of being in the emerging market country business environment and it has severely affected sentiment.
Nick, I believe has been reinvigorated by the company’s current personnel as he has for the first time in a long time been able to turn “leads” into commercial revenue earning contracts in very very quick time (indost and south africa case in point) These leads conversions will only increase over time as tv2u in real world environments start to integrate and be implemented. The tech has never been in question. Just the execution of the business model. He knows imo that tv2u has to get into revenue earning status and is just about there on numerous fronts.

So, what do we have? What are our fundamentals lets have a look at what we know and what we have:

INDONESIA
PGASCOM
Commercial agreement with PGASCOM/PGN (1) 3 year commercial agreement.
Installation of head-end infrastructure complete (2) and pgascoms first client, Smartfren (3)
With guaranteed minimum subscribers in place (4).
An update on the PGAS front I believe is well overdue. Smartfren (forjiflix) must be so close to having a launch date. Now, that PGAS has paid for the head-end infrastructure they too will be under some scrutiny to become operational here to start paying off this fairly sizeable outlay. I have no idea where this stands, in saying that we have never been closer to launching services with PGAS and it seems we are again beholden to the Indonesian way of business and hope we get the real green light on this quite soon. Again, the company needs to update the market on this particular contract for more clarity after its 9 May update.
Another valid point is the minimum subscribers from smartfren (4) kicks into gear as soon as we launch and they are sizeable for revenue forecasts.

INDOSAT
Signed Commercial agreement to deliver new streaming platform with Indosat (5) over initial 36 month period.
TV2U to provide white label platform and application suite of indosat’s branded iStream video service.
It is important at this point to establish with the market that Tv2U are not just providing a streaming platform. They are providing a platform with analytics for revenue via pinpoint user advertising and management services, three types of revenue in one contract ; tech, advertising and service management.

“Advanced analytics capabilities built into iStream will help Indosat drive additional revenue. TV2U’s technology makes it possible for advertising to be dynamically stitched into a live stream or inserted pre- and post-content for on-demand video.” (6)
and
“Fundamental to the success of iStream will be TV2U’s unique approach to advertising and analytics. TV2U will deliver its real-time analytics and advanced dashboard capabilities for content recommendation and targeted advertising.”(6)
and
“Since TV2U’s platform is capable of drill-down advertising based on geography, device, or individual user preferences and content viewing habits, this will provide an essential up-sell opportunity for pushing subscribers towards the iStream service and for supporting Indosat’s ongoing advertising and engagement efforts following the World Cup as iStream reaches the second phase in its lifecycle.” (6)

It is also very important to acknowledge that this type of contract for TV2U is absolute gold dust. It is a low cost-high output revenue model whereby TV2u are only being engaged for the technology and not for infrastructure or content (unlike pgascom or brazil).
This allows TV2U to setup the platform for use, using the client's head-end infrastructure and clients content and then get paid as per commercial agreement. The cost to Tv2U to setup and activate this is nominal and once operational is also low maintenance for high reward. The speed to setup and integrate has also been proven to be very quick with the iStream platform case in point here.
I am expecting new content on iStream quite soon and to build quickly over time as indosat become more of a player in this field.
The reach of Indosat is very appealing, if the iStream service can get up and running and embed itself within the indosat subscriber base (over 100 Million users (6)) TV2U stands to benefit with significant return in the short and mid to long term and is indeed a genuine “company maker” to TV2U as it relates to commercial partners and forward revenue guidance.

The Ooredoo Group is significant. If iStream becomes a successful model for Indosat, there is a certain likelihood of “cookie cut” scenario with other members of the group in the longer term future.

Brazil.
It is very difficult to give an accurate analysis of the current Brazil operations by TV2U.
The market is in dire need of an update and real direction with regard to this operation. The market clearly sees this operation as being dead and buried, this is not my stance but without facts from the board it is hard to establish momentum.
Anything I said here would be more speculative than I would like for this post, so will just deal with the facts that we know as of the latest market updates.

• The previously released SolGo platform that was launched Dec 2017 is now planned to be an overarching TV2U platform offering (7)
• Content of Free to air local channels, Video on demand and Premium Paid channels to be offered on the one platform.
• SOL Telecom, Wirelink, Linkfort and CCSTV will be distributors and marketers of the platform. (8)
• SLIMPACK has been engaged for acquisition, it is clear this has not happened post Due diligence, though have not received confirmation from the company. (9)
• Vonetize VOD to be content aggregator (in negotiations) (8)

What the market needs here is confirmation of commercial agreements with Vonetize, Wirelink, Linkfort, SOL Telecom and CCSTV Something that I am sure our Board is on to.
We need to know what strategy is under way by means of getting re-launched and what that looks like, It is all very messy and clearly some rather large speed bumps have ensued and unexpected ones at that, but again that is speculation. We need facts from the company regarding this project and as previously stated I dont think the board that currently sits is willing to present to the market anything but 100% accurate information to the market, frustrating but understandable imo.
The Brazil market is still there for the taking, we have staff on ground, but I am unsure exactly what they are doing I am hoping all of the above gets clarified very soon.

SOUTH AFRICA
New 36 month Commercial agreement with AEMG (10) to replace AEMG’s current service with 10k active subscribers by providing the ivan-x platform to AEMG’S head-end and plant its content on the platform. PLatform to be re-branded TV2U Africa.
Quick turnaround and will be operational in four weeks as of 19 July.
Another great little contract out of nowhere that is a tech-only play therefore low cost, low maintenance to TV2U and straight up revenue within a few weeks and will be interesting to gauge progress once the service becomes live and more content arrives hopefully with a few more subscribers as well.
Market imo will believe it when they see it, fair enough considering past “contracts” in the region and is certainly not accounted for in the current share price, we wont have long to wait. Hopefully some more information comes forward once the service goes live and how AEMG intend to grow its base and content.
Once this does go live and seen in the “real world” I think credibility starts to creep back to the TV2u sentiment.


It is clear that these are the current operations of the business, One has been launched and awaiting new content, One is about to be launched (SA) One we are awaiting a green light (PGAS) and one we need a full blown operational update (Brazil).
The Board knows this but are not going to place something to market without all the corners covered and I for one like this moving forward, if we can sure up iStream content, launch Smartfren and Africa and get some sort of forward guidance about Brazil the share price will more than definitely appreciate from here (0.008cps). Three out of Four of those are genuine company makers on their own with Commercial agreements in place! get all three going and the sky is genuinely the limit, throw Brazil getting going and this should find a whole new type of investor.
With all this unfolding, I see the company in its strongest fundamental form and we are so so close to legitimising the company to the market to a point where it will not be able to be ignored anymore and new share price highs first target.

Lets also not forget that are many strings to the bow of TV2U not just OTT services with smart homes and Set top boxes being floated but without further guidance its hard to get excited about currently but certainly worth noting this IP when evaluating the net present value.


Sources:

1. TV2U ANNOUNCES MAJOR CONTRACT WITH PGASCOM IN INDONESIA 23 June 2017
2. PGASCOM BUSINESS UPDATE - 9 MAY 2018
3. TV2U CONFIRMS FIRST REVENUE RECEIVED AS IT PREPAIRS FOR INDONESIAN LAUNCH - 13 NOV 2017
4. TV2U - INDONESIA BUSINESS UPDATE - 6 Nov 2017
5. TV2U SIGNS INDOSAT TO DELIVER NEW STREAMING PLATFORM - 13 June 2018
6. TV2U AGREES KEY TERMS OF A MOBILE SPORTS STREAMING AGREEMENT WITH INDOSAT OOREDOO - 4 May 2018
7. TV2U TO BECOME HOUSEHOLD NAME IN BRAZIL - 8 January 2018
8. Quarterly Report - 30 April 2018
9. TV2U - BRAZIL OTT UPDATE - 9 February 2018