Aus, I don't expect a $60 bp soon either but it is worth noting than in value (not kg) terms about 3/4 of the basket currently comes from CREE and only about $12/kg from Ce/La/Sa.
(It's an easy calculation from the basket price data that Lynas provide.)
Broadly (check some posts from Arafura) drops in the non-critical lights are expected to be compensated by strength in the CREE.
Assuming no meltdown in the EU and US......
In the med-long term I expect
- stockpiled inventory used up (esp Japan)
- demand destruction progressively reversed when secure ex-China supply is available
- oversupply and weak prices for Ce/La/Sa and
- strength in the CREE prices.
Leaves Moly very weak and Lynas strong IMO.
And a real chance that our basket price will move up; yes Moly could compete to an extent with the dymiums but who's competing in Europium and Terbium for example?
fundamentals , page-24
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