fundamentals, page-5

I prefer the long term view.
Too much volatility and fear for short term views to be of much value IMO (but I try from time to time anyway).
Medium term, there is no chance major economy countries like US and Japan can stop printing at high levels.
Europe same even if it’s to a lesser extent. Most others need to follow to try and keep competitive on exports. China is still mostly pegged to USD.

No obvious outcome for gold other than to continue upwards –at least until it goes too far perhaps in some blow-off phase.
Nowhere near that yet. It needs to go above $3,000 before I start to worry about that (see below).
I like to look at the 1981-83 price as a reference- just after the $820 peak popped. The price in 1981 averaged $460, in 82 it was $375 and in 83 it was $424.
I like to round it off to $400.
Pre 1970 the price was fixed by US govt so not much use as a guide to market price. Once it was free to move it rallied over 10 years to that $820 peak.
Using $400 the POG has quadrupled in 30 years (if you use the peak it’s only doubled but that’s a much less conservative approach).
Money supply in the US is up by at least a factor of 6 on M1 and other measures (M2, M3 etc) are up by more.
To catch up to M1, POG needs to reach $2,400. That is my idea on where gold should be now so that is my target- until M1 grows further.
Massive debt levels and budget deficits suggest continued large growth in money supply so by the time POG reaches $2400, I expect to have a higher target.
That’s the nature of inflation but my $2,400 target for gold needs no further inflation, just a catch up for gold to M1 as it now stands.
My target using M2 or M3 would be higher. If gold was to catch up to M3 the price of gold would be $3,000.
So some of those high targets that many well credentialed analysts talk about are very realistic IMO.
Jim Rickards has one target of $7,000 based on the world wide money supply vs world gold reserves rather than looking at the US as I have done.
I look at my $2,400 as a base case.