So I see a few people looking for some typical FA metrics (as TA...

So I see a few people looking for some typical FA metrics (as TA shows a strong up-trend) so I figured I'd outline a few key metrics and some positives/negatives in the stock as I see it.

Basics:

PE ratio is currently ~51:1 based on recent profit guidance

[email protected] = 404.7million based on the 95million shares issued
NPAT = 7.6 to 8.3 million (guidance)
PE =  48.75 to 53.25 - mid-range around 51

Analysis

PE of 51 seems high but it is not outrageously so, especially if you look at it on an on-going forward PE valuation.

HY 2014 profit was ~1.3million, FY2014 was 1.9million (had some large employee and director bonuses totalling 1.4million, can probably expect the same thing this year, which makes the guidance seem more positive than it actually is).

HY2015 profit was 3.2million, FY2015 we have to rely on guidance of 7.6-8.3million.

Looking at growth profiles we see the following



Now this profile doesn't include the face the underlying for 2HY2015 could include an extra ~1million in bonuses, giving it an even greater growth profile.

Forward Looking

Forward looking annualised PE, given recent guidance, and taking into account the potential bonuses which may dampen the 2HY2015 profit number comes out below.

[email protected] = 404.7 million
Forward Annualised profit (actual, not underlying): 8.8 to 10.2 million
Forward Annualised Profit (underlying, assuming bonuses same as last year): 11.6 to 13 million
Forward PE range = 31 to 46

For a growth stock, with a current growth trend of ~100%+ YoY in profit and revenue these metrics don't suggest that it is strongly over or under valued.

It will probably see a short-term pullback after yesterdays 10% rise, but I don't think the fundamentals suggest that the technical strong trend won't stay in tact for another 6months to 1 year.