Fundamentals, page-97

Nope. You are missing the 313k zinc in social inventory stock in China as of 28/2 (increasing around 150k in the last month).
I previously also did not include bonded warehouse stock (previously imported zinc stock used for arbitrage trading) Which at last count was around 70k Zinc.
So yes lets be accurate - its more like 600k+ Zinc metal stock currently. This also doesn’t include the stockpiles smelters and traders are still holding on to, smelters are documented to be holding higher than usual zinc stocks.

If you can’t see the bleeding obvious that there were non-visible stocks that contributed to the large increase all of a sudden then you are continuing to ignore the facts in front of you. Nothing different to the last 1-1.5 years.

The IZLSG looks at the refined metal balance, they expected that the smelters were able to convert more of the surplus concentrates into metal during 2019. They weren’t hence why TCs are still where they.
If there was an actual deficit in the zinc market in 2019 explain why TCs rose to the high levels they are at and zinc metal premiums are close to/at all time lows. Surely in a market it deficit it would
be the other way around right?

Trevali for sure are going to struggle big time and their higher cost mines will be put on C&M although they have been reasonably successful in cost cutting so far and hedged some of their tonnage at $1.1/lb but they it will be difficult for them to be able to cut costs enough over the longer term. They still have $240M revolving debt facility with first repayment in 2022 so the situation is not as critical as NCZ from a cashflow perspective so I expect them to be less at risk than NCZ in the shorter term.

You have to remember that zinc mines in China employ a lot of people and are usually linked with smelters downstream so they will not be cut in any large amount to make a difference.
Along with the weaker yuan which will make zinc/zinc con imports relatively more expensive (vs domestic zinc the local government will be doing everything they can to support the mines as they are a massive source of employment.

Which one of the top 10 mines do you think is most at risk?: