If you want to engage in fundamental analysis, you can’t ignore...

If you want to engage in fundamental analysis, you can’t ignore the elephant in the room - sodium. It’s not one of the thousands of “revolutionary new battery technologies” announced every week. It’s got similar properties to lithium, it’s far more abundant and CATL, the biggest battery producer in the world (or close enough), is already using it in production.

If the price of lithium stays high it will encourage a quick transition to sodium. The higher, the quicker. I think this is the reason behind the Wood Mackenzie forecast for falling prices that was used in the Investor Day last week. The forecast trajectory of lithium demand we’ve seen many times based on forecast EV and stationary storage demand assumes there is no alternative to lithium but that seems increasingly unsustainable. Rather, lithium is likely to remain at the premium end of a broader spectrum of options that will keep a lid on the price of lithium.