fundemantily friday, page-108

i'm confident the XJO and SP500 are in bull markets. my definition of a bull market is any uptrend lasting at least 9 months. nearly all sectors are getting in on the act so it is unlikely we are looking at a bear market rally.
to me the main push is up so one should buy weakness. on principle i have no interest in playing the reactions. that to me is a loser's game.

bear markets in the US are invariably preceeded by a bear market in a bond market, usually in long term govt debt, but not last time. instead the bear market was in the private securitized debt markets. they've since printed so much money to "fix" these markets that it is highly unlikely these private securitized debt markets will cause the SP500 to crash again. with such massive printing of money, some escapes into the stock market. hence the current up trend in equities doesn't surprise.
the 30 year bond market was in a long term bull market from 1981 until December 2008. this whole bull market took place between two logarithmic linear trend channels. it was a 27 year bull market in long term govt debt because of 27 years of increasingly less inflation and culminating in deflation. in December 2008 the long bonds soared above the top trend channel.. then collapsed back into the channel. the long bond are now in a bear market despite quantitative easing, which means that although the Fed is a buyer of long term treasuries and so supporting the market, the market is falling! how strong a bear market is that! who will be a buyer of these bonds when the govt stops the QE? it seems that we should now start expecting higher long term rates and increasing inflation. i think this bear market in long bonds will continue all year. i expect a bull market in stocks to last 9-15 months. the bear market in bonds will be followed by USD weakness and then followed by a new bear market in stocks. I doubt the US govt have much conception of the vicious circles that await it. and of course the Aussie economy will tank, upsetting Swan's illusions.