OK Mr Negative Nancy...so lets do some back of the envelope stuff.
Using the following as our guide
1GWh = $2B in valuation
5% of $2B = $100M (using MR NN's 5% estimation here)
Now lets look at potential upside impact on the valuation.
@ 1GWh = $100m
@ 3GWh = $300m
@ 10GWh = $1B
@ 15GWh = $1.5B
So at full capacity, the NY battery plant alone would put MNS's little 5% stake at a valuation of $1.5B (that's billion ladies and gents).
But lets not stop there. Let's look at the if the ownership % was higher (10% and 15%) and play it out with the same GWhs.
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 0 5% 10% 15% 1 1GWh $100 million $200 million $300 million 2 3GWh $300 million $600 million $900 million 3 10GWh $1 billion $2 billion $3 billion 4 15GWh $1.5 billion $3 billion $4.5 billion
Let's also not forget that this is just one of potentially numerous battery plants that MNS will be involved in. Simply multiply those numbers for each battery plants based on the ownership %
Even with a very modest 3 plants running at 15GWhs each with 5% ownership in each, we reach $4.5 billion ladies and gentlemen. Let's look at the full numeric value for effect.
$4,500,000,000
With a current market cap of $230,000,000 we can add some more calculations to the back of our envelope.
$230m / $4.5B = 5.1%
Would you look at that...we are currently trading at only 5% of our potential market capitalisation (based on only 5% ownership of battery plants running at 15GWh each. All of a sudden MNS is looking incredibly under valued and a real bargain at the current price.
Thanks Mr NN for helping show everyone what even a small 5% ownership can mean.
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OK Mr Negative Nancy...so lets do some back of the envelope...
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